More on China’s housing markets
Financial bubbles are governed by something like the economic equivalent of physics Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle. It is impossible to observe a bubble with certainty without actually altering the bubble itself. If people knew it was a bubble, it wouldn’t be a bubble – it would have already collapsed. — VOX
Spännande sätt att se på saken. Följande graf återges i samband med ovanstående citat:
Denna graf beskriver prisutvecklingen för nybyggda hus av konstant kvalitet i Kina. Författarna till VOX artikeln skriver även följande:
While it is impossible to conduct a formal test of whether there is any fundamental mispricing in Chinese land and housing markets with these limited data, there certainly is much to make one more than a little suspicious that prices are unsustainable.
- The magnitude of the increase in land values over the past 2-3 years in Beijing is, to our knowledge, unprecedented.
- These increases post-date the Summer Olympics and the recent price surge in early 2010 suggests a relationship to the Chinese stimulus package which itself is temporary.
The role of state-owned enterprises also is potentially worrisome. It could be that these entities are superior investors and are purchasing sites that are of especially high quality in ways that we cannot control for in our empirical analysis. However, it also could be that moral hazard is at work here, as these entities are thought to have access to low cost capital from state-owned banks and may believe they are too big to fail. If this is the driving force, then prices are being bid up as one arm of the government buys from another.
Bara så ni vet.
Blivande civilingenjör som läser Teknisk Fysik på Chalmers och Nationalekonomi på Handels i Göteborg. Kombinerar ett intresse för siffror och modeller med ett intresse för ekonomi och ledarskap. Skriver om samhället utifrån ett frihetligt perspektiv.
