I think that a (presumably immortal) AI super-entrepreneur would play the ultimate long game. It would realize it cannot reliably manifest hit after hit in the short term. Instead, it would establish one cash machine after another in relatively low-risk domains and aggregate and compound. I don’t think the problem with AI will be IQ; I think it will be immortality.
Read MoreThis post reflects on the role of skill and luck in business. There are trainable components but also innate factors like IQ. Business is a series of strategic bets, with success influenced by both skill and chance. The best way to improve your odds is with a strategic, learning-oriented approach to enhance success odds. Experimentation and resilience play a crucial role in navigating the unpredictable landscape of entrepreneurship.
Read MoreMy goal is to make it easy to make small bets, in proportion to available capital, each with potentially extraordinary rewards. Life is full of random events. Luck, timing, and talent, in that order. But we can influence our odds of being lucky.
Read MoreLet’s start an imaginary venture capital fund and do some investing! To better understand what it takes to raise money from VCs, let’s imagine what it would be like to successfully deploy a venture fund.
Read MoreTo build successful, valuable companies you need to understand how financial markets work. Building great products is still the most value-generating work a founder can spend time on, but it isn’t the only piece of the puzzle. Here are some reflections based on my recent experiences talking to investors.
Read MoreAt Kognic, we're committed to fostering a world-class team and company culture—our principles include transparency, performance, trust, and rapid iteration. We address the principal-agent problem by aligning goals and risk preferences, nurturing a culture inclusive of gender and ethnicity but exclusive in determination and vision.
Read MoreThere is a need for world models in AI for robust intelligence grounded in reality. Current artificial intelligence techniques are inferior compared to human and animal learning. By distilling "natural concepts" from observing the world, we can create robust AI that does not catastrophically fail on small changes in the input. These "natural concepts" are best expressed as embeddings.
Read MoreFrom enthusiasts to skeptics and the frightened, AI evokes strong reactions. I’ve entertained many different possibilities in the last year, but I’m increasingly converging on a feeling of excitement. I think AI has the potential to turbocharge our world's betterment efforts. Of course, hurdles like job displacement and AI's environmental impact exist and need to be taken seriously. I'm a strong proponent of free-market democracy shaping AI's evolution. AI should reflect human diversity, not impose a global moral bias. Self-improving AI systems are possible, but theoretical.
Read MoreHumans are essential, but human existence is not unconditional. We impose regulation when self-interest fails to protect our long-term, common good. Super-intelligent AIs might be similar to companies, which implies they could be regulated. There is an old debate about whether technology risks replacing humans that is accelerating again. It is not clear if “this time is different.” Human goals, preferences, and ethics are constantly changing. This protects us from automation. We have a moral obligation to protect the subjective, conscious experiences of other humans.
Read MoreAI is overwhelmingly positive, and super-intelligent AGI is most likely still distant. We cannot rule out the possibility of self-improvement capabilities, but it is unlikely. We have no idea how super-intelligent AGI would impact society, and your feelings will depend on how you handle tail risk. Either way, we have practical issues to deal with now, like misinformation, reskilling, and emissions.
Read MoreThose who know me know I’ve always been skeptical about hyperbolic claims around AI. I always preferred machine learning over artificial intelligence because AI felt pompous. My understanding of the available technology gave me no reason to think we were close to some sort of human-like intelligence. But I’d rather be correct than consistent. It is fair to call today’s algorithms a form of AI. I have changed my mind about the possibility of near-term AGI, and I’m implementing many behavioral updates to align my life with my new view.
Read MoreI think life is a flywheel. While the beginning of an exponential curve feels insignificant, gains increase rapidly over time. Some call this The Virtuous Cycle. Others call it Compound Interest. When combined with the idea of breakthroughness you start to realize why some things appear impossible until they are suddenly real. With luck and a lot of hard work, you can get on an exponential trajectory. That can unlock amazing things.
Read MoreI write a lot about building companies. At one point in the past, I wrote: "If you care about raising a huge round from a top-tier VC, then you need to make very deliberate choices." In this post, I dig deeper into what I’ve learned about what such deliberate choices might look like.
Read MoreI regularly reflect on what I have experienced to extract patterns and ideas to guide my next steps. I have two goals: 1) enjoy life with loved ones and 2) build extraordinary things. Balancing these two things is hard, so most of my reflections are about the tension between them. Year by year, my thinking evolves. This is my latest iteration.
Read MoreWhat is valuable in a world where neural networks can combine and interpolate any information structured by humans? If you want an edge on computers, you must build many global, solid relationships and make deliberate but risky bets.
Read MoreMost valuable tasks are bets. This is particularly true when innovating. You assume something is possible without knowing for sure. Huge value can only come from the seemingly unlikely. In an age of increasing machine intelligence, efficiently doing what is expected will bring lower and lower returns. Humans are not suited to compete with machines regarding memory, efficiency, or repeatability. With skill, you can change probabilities. The probable is what happens when no one interferes. The possible is sometimes achieved when someone takes action.
Read MoreThe last few weeks have made me begin to adjust my assumptions about what machine learning will be able to do in the near future. My new position is: I think it is likely that the scaling hypothesis will hold, and that we will experience human-level competency in virtual entities in the next few years. That’s going to bring massive change to society, work, and business. Be prepared!
Read MoreWhat is the state of machine learning in 2022? Running a business that is closely tied to the progress of state-of-the-art machine learning means I’m trying to stay up to date with what is going on. In this post, I go through what I consider to be the most interesting breakthroughs and share my thoughts on what that means. We cover embeddings, attention, transformers and multi-modal models.
Read MoreI spend a lot of time evaluating people. What makes someone get up in the morning? What drives them? I believe smart people who are prepared to work hard will always be able to make a living in a peaceful democracy. And for most people, that’s enough. A job, a family, and the joy of everyday things. I respect that, and I understand that. Some, however, for some reason, need more. Who are these people?
Read MoreTechnology and entrepreneurship are lifelong passions of mine. Most things have not been invented yet, and imagining all the cool stuff we will enjoy in the future is a favorite past-time. But how do you turn new technology into valuable products, and how is that related to risk and reward?
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